Caleb

Run-Rate & Outlook Control

Caleb keeps the forward view honest. It builds a clean run-rate from actuals, applies your assumptions with discipline, and flags early risk when results diverge from the plan narrative. Caleb does not invent strategy or “find a forecast” in the noise—it enforces consistency across volume, price, mix, costs, and timing so the outlook is defensible. Built to support judgment, not replace it: your team sets the levers, Caleb maintains the math and the storyline alignment.

Primary Outputs

Typical deliverables

Run-rate view by month/week with clear drivers and normalized one-time impacts

Early-warning risk flags when actuals diverge from assumed price, volume, mix, or cost paths

Assumption ledger: what changed, when it changed, and the quantified impact on the outlook

Outlook roll-forward pack: prior outlook vs. current outlook with clean deltas and attribution

Exec-ready commentary blocks that match the numbers (no “hand-wavy” explanations)

Defensibility checks: ties to actuals, confirms seasonality logic, and surfaces fragile assumptions

Core Capabilities

What it does

Builds a run-rate from actuals and separates structural performance from one-time noise

Applies assumption discipline across volume, price, mix, cost, and timing—no hidden levers

Detects outlook drift early by comparing actual trajectories to implied plan paths

Maintains an assumption ledger with lineage so teams stop arguing about “which version”

Generates management commentary that ties to quantified drivers—not speculation

Surfaces fragility: assumptions that require unrealistic step-ups or late-quarter heroics

Operational Fit

How it’s used

Used By

FP&A, CFO staff, Finance Business Partners, and business owners preparing MBR/QBR outlooks.

Used For

Run-rate updates, outlook roll-forwards, “where will we land” questions, and early risk identification.

Typical Questions

If we hold today’s run-rate, where do we land by month-end and quarter-end?
Which assumptions are doing the work—and which ones are already breaking?
What changed since last outlook, and is the story actually supported by the math?

Agent Overview